College Basketball Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Panthers at Marquette Eagles | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Andrew LangePittsburgh -2.5 at Marquette O/U 123.5? Recommendation: Under Numerous factors point us towards the under with this afternoon's Pittsburgh-Marquette matchup. The first meet was a knock-down-drag-out affair that produced only 65 possessions despite going to overtime. And the 74-67 score is very deceiving with the game tied 57-57 at the end of regulation. Pace wise we're dealing with two of the slower teams in the Big East with both averaging around 62 possessions per game. There have also been multiple reports that both squads will play zone defense at times this afternoon. For Pitt it is a smart move considering Marquette ranks No. 1 in the Big East is 2-point FG% at 51.5% and 14th at shooting threes (27.2%). Pitt has a similar blueprint with a vast majority of its points coming from inside 20 feet. Note that last year's meeting produced 119 points and 59 possessions and that was with Marquette playing up-tempo and averaging around 70 possessions per game. The Golden Eagles are significantly slower this year and as a result, we'll play this one under the total.? Tags: College Basketball Pittsburgh Panthers Marquette Golden Eagles Andrew Lange | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Handicapping: Red Hot Georgetown First to 9 Wins in Big East Play | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Because of their head start on the weekend, the Georgetown Hoyas find themselves alone in first place of the Big East after Friday?s 62-55 win at Cincinnati. Georgetown is 9-3 in league action, temporarily ahead of Syracuse and Marquette at 8-3. Louisville, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh are tied for fourth with 8-4 records. It may be time to consider Georgetown more seriously for a #3 seed or better in the Big Dance. We?ve spent a lot of time recently documenting big name teams who aren?t exactly on fire. Georgetown, sitting with a #4 spot in Joe Lunardi?s Bracketology assessment, is one of the few teams that?s on a big roll. *Georgetown is 9-1 straight up its last 10 games. *Georgetown is also 9-1 against market expectations their last 10 games, including their 11-point cover tonight as a 4-point underdog. There aren't too many teams on 90% cover runs at the moment! *Georgetown has recent win/covers over Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, and Cincinnati, all of whom are in line for decent Dance seeds at the moment. This isn?t Arizona. Or Kansas. Or Minnesota. The Hoyas do have some blemishes on their resume (the one loss in the last 10 was against South Florida). But, there?s a lot to like about how the team has been playing recently. Look at how they ranked in a couple of important categories entering tonight?s matchup with the Bearcats? Big East Margin Averages Georgetown +5.4 Cincinnati +2.9 Big East Two-Point Defense Georgetown 43% Cincinnati 47% The market line of Cincinnati -4 suggested the teams were dead even (home court advantage is worth about 4 points in college basketball). But, in Big East action, Georgetown had been 2.5 points per better per game. And, that was keyed by inside defense?the element that?s arguably most consistent amongst top teams (or the least influenced by the randomness of outside influences). Let?s see what the stats looked like tonight? #15 Georgetown 62, Cincinnati 55 2-Point Percentage: Georgetown 47%, Cincinnati 43% 3-Point Shooting: Georgetown 3/12, Cincinnati 4/24 Free Throws: Georgetown 19/25, Cincinnati 17/30 1?s and 2?s: Georgetown 53, Cincinnati 43 Rebounds: Georgetown 27, Cincinnati 36 Turnovers: Georgetown 10, Cincinnati 11 (Georgetown 25-17 in Kenpom/Sagarin, Cincinnati 21-20) The computer composite also had these teams as even (well, Georgetown?s average ranking was 21, Cincy?s 20.5). Yet, the Hoyas led almost the whole game in hostile territory, won two-point shooting with the exact margins we?d seen from these teams in conference action, and won 1?s and 2?s by 10 points on the road even though the other team benefitted from friendlier officiating (Georgetown had a bit of a late free throw parade with a lead, while Cincinnati was at 30 tries without that boost). Georgetown Positives Inside shooting Inside defense Probably some hustle on perimeter defense given Cincy?s 4 of 24 mark Free throw accuracy Ball protection Georgetown Negatives Poor treys Outrebounded Didn?t force a lot of turnovers It wasn?t enough to make anyone say, ?Oh my God, these guys have to be at least a #3 seed!? But, it was a very solid road performance in a game they were supposed to lose. And, it?s coming at a time of year when many other teams under consideration in that seed range aren?t playing this well this consistently. Lunardi?s #3 Seeds Louisville Arizona Kansas New Mexico Georgetown is ahead of Louisville in the Big East standings, and beat them heads up. Arizona is slumping. Kansas just ended a three-game losing streak. New Mexico is ranked in the mid-to-high 30?s in the computers, which is down in the 8-9 range for seeds. Let?s hope sane minds on the selection committee aren?t thinking New Mexico is actually a #3 seed right now. Lunardi?s Other #4 Seeds Marquette Ohio State Kansas State Georgetown split two games with Marquette, but won the tandem by 7 points. Kansas State?s loss to Kansas was ugly. I guess Ohio State?s was too at Indiana, but I?m giving the Buckeyes the benefit of the doubt for now in that killer conference. Should anybody here get to move up to a better spot, Georgetown and Ohio State would be the obvious choices. The Hoyas will have a chance to play their way up to a #3 or better with two games still left against Syracuse (currently projected as a #2 seed) before the Big East tournament plays kingmaker to some hardscrabble team. It?s great that we?ll have so many storylines playing out in front of us over the next month. For more blogs from Stat Intelligence, click here. Tags: College Basketball Georgetown Hoyas Cincinnati Bearcats Stat Intelligence | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NFL Handicapping: 2013-14 Strength of Schedule | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Link to the NFL's generic strength of schedule for 2013-14 (by generic we mean opponents' records from this past season). Carolina tops the list at .534 (138-116-2). Super Bowl XLVII?champs Baltimore check in at fifth (.535). Four of the five easiest slates come from the AFC West.Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
New Jersey argues sports betting will help solve Atlantic City's woes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NorthJersey.com's John Brennan gives us the scoop on what went down during yesterday's sports betting hearing. ?The defining feature is that Congress has compelled the state legislature to take some action,? Mishkin said. ?There can be no commandeering unless Congress has required a state to enact or carry out [some action]. The language of PASPA is crystal clear: It only prevents betting. It doesn?t compel New Jersey to do anything.? He called PASPA ?an unwelcome burden? on the state?s effort to regulate (and profit from) sports betting, and said that the state was being prevented from trying to solve the problems of the Atlantic City casino industry. Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sports Betting Podcast 2-15-2013 with Handicapper Rob Veno | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno.?Rob talked this weekend's marquee college hoops matchups. Today's segments? To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage. ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory. Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Gambling: New York's White favored to win Sprite Slam Dunk Contest | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Here are the odds for Saturday's Sprite Slam Dunk Contest in Houston. New York Knicks journeyman James White is the current betting favorite at +170. White, whose entire Wiki page is dedicated to his prowess as a dunker, claims he has five in his arsenal that if completed will earn a top score of 50. Utah's Jeremy Evans won last year's event and Indiana's Gerald Green won back in 2007. Odds to win 2013 Dunk Contest (The Greek)? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Handicapping: With Noel out for UK, Tennessee's Stokes could thrive | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Something to consider when Kentucky travels to Tennessee on Saturday. Obviously the Wildcats will be without the services of Nerlens Noel. In the first meeting, Noel played 38 minutes, scored 12 points, grabbed nine boards and blocked six shots as the Cats pulled out a 75-65 win in Lexington. Also noteworthy in that game was the performance of UT's Jarnell Stokes who played only 15 minutes and fouled out. The Vols have won four of their last six games in large part because Stokes has significantly stepped up his game. In those six games he averaged 17.5 ppg, 11.7 rpg and 2 bpg ? and more importantly stayed out of foul trouble. Kentucky expects to replace Noah with 7-foot freshman Willie Cauley-Stein who has actually played fairly well of late with three straight double-digit efforts.Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Tennessee Volunteers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Guess what mainstream actor claims he was a beard for a sports betting syndicate | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| And for your Friday enjoyment we present to you Ashton Kutcher discussing his short-lived role as a beard for a sports betting syndicate. "I actually used to be a front for the largest national sports-betting syndicate in America." "We were clearing, like, $750,000 in four weeks of college football. It was pretty fun. Then they caught on. The hypothesis had been that the house would just assume that I was a dumb actor with a lot of money who liked football." "So, generally these types of individuals aren't allowed to gamble, but they know how to handicap the house. So they sent me in. I basically just placed the bet." ?Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Tennessee Volunteers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Gambling: Team Shaq favored over Team Chuck in tonight's Rising Stars Challenge | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Team Shaq -5.5 vs. Team Chuck O/U 281.5 The NBA All-Star festivities get underway tonight in Houston with the Rising Stars Challenge. Below are the lineups for both squads. Team Shaq is currently a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 281.5. The last six games in the series have produced scores of 146-133, 148-140, 140-128, 122-116, 136-109, and 155-114 (264.5 ppg avg.). Team Shaq ? Team Chuck? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Betting Trends: PAC-12 home courts have been money burners | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Andrew LangeOn today's Podcast I?discussed the lack of strong home courts in the PAC-12 this season. From a straight up perspective, home teams are only 40-29, 58% SU in league play which is 23rd out of 33 conferences according to Ken Pom. Where they really falter though is against the spread at 29-39-1 ATS. Arizona and Oregon are the main culprits (both 1-5 ATS) but not one team is more than a game over .500 ATS in league play. Stanford, California, and Colorado are your PAC-12 home teams this evening. PAC-12 SU/ATS Home Records in League Play? ? Tags: College Basketball PAC-12 Andrew Lange | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Alf MusketaLA Clippers -3 at LA Lakers O/U 200? Recommendation: Over Usually when two rivals face off they are familiar with one another?s style and roster. As a result, these types of games have a tendency to go under the total. But in this particular matchup I see plenty of reasons to look the other way. ? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Will legalized sports betting dip into the NFL's profits? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Editorial from northjersey.com on the NFL's anti-sports betting stance. It is argued that fantasy football may have something to do with it. According to the Nevada Gaming Commission, in 2011, $3.2 billion was wagered in sports bets in the state?s casinos, and of that amount, $1.34 billion, or nearly 42 percent, was bet on college and pro football. On this year?s Super Bowl, $98.9 million was wagered in Nevada alone. The National Gaming Impact Commission estimates that $380 billion is wagered a year on football through offshore accounts and illegal betting. People are betting on football whether the NFL likes it or not. ?Tags: NFL | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sports Betting Podcast 2-14-2013 with Handicappers Sammy P, Ian Cameron, and Rob Veno | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: NHL College Basketball Sammy P Rob Veno Ian Cameron | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Update: Missing from the Math in Kenpom's Foul or Defend Study | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Submitted by Stat Intelligence Those of you who are statheads may have already spent the day discussing Ken Pomeroy?s college basketball tabulations on what happens when a defense does or doesn?t foul when leading by three late in the game. I think a fairly important factor has been left out of the discussions I?ve read and heard (maybe it?s come up often in ones I haven?t). First, the nuts and bolts. Pomeroy wanted to compare late game success rates from recent years that would shed light on the ?foul or defend? debate. Some people are always screaming at coaches to foul when up three in the final seconds. Most coaches are ignoring this and continuing to defend, figuring the worst that can happen is that the other team hits a trey and the game goes to overtime. Kenpom?s Parameters In games from 2009-10 to the present Defense leads by exactly 3 points Opponent takes possession from between 12 and 5 seconds left in regulation or overtime Kenpom?s Findings There were 677 cases of defending There were 137 cases of fouling In the 677 cases of defending, the defensive team went on to win 93.4% of the time In the 137 cases of fouling, the defensive team went on to win 92.3% of the time Kenpom Summarizes: ??defending has surprisingly worked out to be a slightly better strategy over the past three-plus seasons.? ?Some people might say there?s a definitive conclusion in this. After all, there are over 800 cases. But because there are so few cases of failure, that?s a misrepresentation of the sample size. The fact is, we could use an additional 5-10 years of data before making a definitive statement. Even then, tweaks in the methodology can get you closer to one answer or the other.? ?However, I think that says something about how difficult it is to determine the proper strategy. To me, the only conclusion one can make is that the criticism of coaches that choose to defend appears to be misplaced. A small percentage of the time you?ll get burned no matter what you choose to do. We will continue to see teams make game-tying threes near the end of games more often than they get fouled simply because more coaches choose this strategy. In the long run, it?s difficult to prove it?s a bad idea.? What?s missing from the math? Let me start by asking you a question. Who got fouled? If you?re a coach in the final moments of a chess match thriller, and you?re confronted with this scenario?defend or foul?how are you going to decide what to do? You could see above that the general rule of thumb is to defend (83% of the possessions were defended, 17% saw fouls). What would make you foul? I think most of us would agree that the logical way to approach the challenge would be: *Foul the teams who are most likely to hit a three *Defend everyone else, particularly teams who aren?t all that great from long range Remember, coaching orthodoxy has been to defend. A coach has to be pretty afraid of the opponent?s perimeter game to trump the orthodoxy. This reality of game theory has a way of mucking up conclusions you might draw from the initial set of numbers. It wasn?t: Defending worked .934 of the time There?s a good chance it was: Defending worked .934 of the time but the most dangerous 17% of perimeter offenses weren?t allowed to shoot! We don?t know what the success rate would have been if all 814 cases had been defended and NOBODY fouled. We do know that 17% of the possible shooters were erased from the ?defend? sample because they got fouled?and it was likely a grouping included the most dangerous threats from long range. THIS MATTERS! It?s not 93.4% if you defend, it?s 93.4% if you?re defending roughly the bottom 80% of three-point threats. We?re never going to get a good test sample because we can?t tell coaches ?Hey, could you guys NOT foul the best three-point shooting teams in these situations this year so we can see how often they beat you?? But, we can use some common sense thinking to paint a picture that might actually be suggesting coaches are doing the right thing, and they?re doing the right thing in dramatic fashion. Imagine for a moment that nobody ever fouled, and the resulting win rate was 91% for ALL teams who had that 3-point lead with 5-12 seconds left in the game. That doesn?t seem too unrealistic. It?s 93% for the 83% of the cases that were defended in Kenpom?s study. Throw in the 17% scariest perimeter teams that weren?t allowed to shoot treys before but now are...a 91% success rate for ALL defenses doesn?t seem crazy. What that means in the math if we apply the principles to Kenpom?s data: 91% success rate against all offenses (741 wins in 814 games in our estimated hypothetical) 93% success against the bottom 83% (632 of 677 tabulated by Kenpom) 80% success against the top 17% scariest perimeter shooters (109 of 137 deduced by subtraction) Now?in a brave new world?coaches who have grown tired of watching good perimeter offenses hit late treys against them decide to foul the 17% of opposing offenses who are most scary from long range, but they continue to defend the other 83% the way they always had. *Coaches are still winning 93% of the time against the bottom 83% (no change in strategy for them) *Coaches are now winning MUCH more often against the scariest 17%! (lifting overall win rate) The lesson of the study may not be that it doesn?t matter which choice you pick because you?re going to win about 93% of the time either way. That potential illusion was created because a dangerous 17% hunk of perimeter shooters were prevented from showing us what they can do. The study may be suggesting that fouling the most dangerous perimeter teams is a GREAT choice because it improves your win rate against that most lethal sample. The people yelling at the TV ?You?ve got to foul there!? are right if the offense is dangerous from long range (which is a pretty good match for reality based on what I?ve seen). It almost works out to an 80/20 rule (doesn?t everything in life?). If you?re on defense with a 3-point lead in the final seconds?foul the most dangerous 20% of opposing offenses, defend the other 80%. Kenpom?s study may be suggesting that coaching as a composite has already found the right mix that maximizes win potential when confronted with that defensive choice late in a close game. Only defending (never fouling) might yield 91% (or thereabouts), with painful losses where it just seemed dumb not to foul a strong perimeter team. Applying the 80/20 rule pushed that to 93%. At the very least, the impact of the study can?t be fully digested in my view until you mentally pencil in what that scariest 17% who were fouled would have done. That's what was missing from the math. You can't properly evaluate the strategy choices until you have a good estimate for that element of the decision-making mix. For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here.
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College Basketball Gambling: Louisville looks to bounce back vs. St. John's | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| St. Johns at Louisville -17 O/U 132.5 Last night, Notre Dame had a difficult time disposing of Big East bottom feeder DePaul, eventually winning in overtime, 82-78. Heading into that game there were obvious questions about whether or not the Irish would?have enough in the?tank?physically and emotionally after the five overtime affair against Louisville. Tonight it is the Cardinals' turn as they play host to St. John's. ?In three of our five losses, we have beat ourselves, and for a veteran team that?s very disturbing,? Pitino said on Wednesday. ?I think we?re playing with great heart, with very little head. You?ve got to play smart as well as playing hard to be a successful team, and they know that.? ?Russ has got to learn that we have some other talented offensive players,? Pitino said. ?He?s got to shoot less and pass more to guys like Chane (Behanan) because we have some offensive talents.? ?Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals St. John's Red Storm | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Handicapping: Reno sportsbook posts Season O/U Wins | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ViewFromVegas.com posted what is believed to be 2013?s first MLB Season Over/Under Win numbers courtesy of Reno's Atlantis Sportsbook. D?Backs 81? ov -120 / un -110? Tags: MLB | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Betting: Miami Heat have won and covered five straight vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Miami at Oklahoma City -5 O/U 204.5 Big matchup on TNT tonight with Miami headed to Oklahoma City. The two squads last hooked up on Christmas with the Heat (-2.5) earning the victory, 103-97. It is also a rematch of last year's NBA Finals in which Miami won 4-1. Tonight will mark the third time this season the Heat have been an underdog ? in the previous two they beat both the Lakers and Nugget outright.
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College Basketball Handicapping: Can Northeastern sustain its success? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Andrew LangeAfter limping into conference play having lost six of seven, Northeastern has put together one of the surprise seasons in the Colonial Conference. The Huskies just got finished winning three straight barn burners on the road to move to 12-1 ? three games ahead of tonight's opponent Delaware. I tried to step in front of Northeastern in its last game at William & Mary ? one of the better situational plays I've come across over the last few weeks. Things were going according to plan as W&M (+2.5) was up seven points with five minutes to go. But Northeastern rallied back, tied the game, took the lead, and won by four points, holding the home team to a single bucket the final five minutes of game. It was a frustrating loss and yet another "clutch" performance by Northeastern. According to Ken Pomeroy, there are seven teams in the Colonial that are ranked anywhere from 133rd to 195th. Meaning, in theory, there isn't much difference between Drexel at 6-6 and Northeastern at 12-1. Case in point, in the two meetings this year, the Huskies won in overtime on the road and by seven at home over the Dragons. It was two of a litany of competitive games that Northeastern has pulled out over conference foes. NU's 12 league wins have come by margins of 10, 4, 5 (OT), 11, 5, 4, 4 (2OT), 10, 7, 5, 5 (OT), and 4. So of their 12 wins, eight came by five points or less and three of those went to overtime. Now I'm of the belief that Northeastern has been a tab bit fortunate. It's different when a team is rolling through conference play like Florida (who did finally lose) or Miami (who I think may lose tonight) but when you?re winning close game after close game eventually things don?t go your way. As mentioned, some power ratings suggest Northeastern isn't even the best team in the league. And how is it that a team who was projected during the preseason to place in middle-of-the-pack, who won just one game in December, be only 8-5 ATS (7-6 if not for an overtime winner) despite a 12-1 SU record? Short answer: NU is 0-5 ATS when laying more than a field goal. To NU's credit, one of the main reasons they've been able to sustain this seemingly impossible trajectory is that?they shoot 77.3% from the free throw line and 43.3% from three in league play. Do those two things on a consistent basis and you'll win more close games than you lose. But you?re not always going to shoot 12-of-21 from three and barely squeak away with a road win like they did last time out against William & Mary. Or hold a team to 1-of-26 from three (WOW!) and need overtime to win and cover (see: Old Dominion game last week). So as a bettor, what do you do with Northeastern? Do you just fade away? Stay away? Or ride this team while their hot? I'm personally looking for spots to play against because I don't think they can sustain their good fortune and above average play. The only problem is that oddsmakers aren't always pricing Northeastern like a 12-1 team with a three-game lead in conference play. Tonight, you can find the Huskies as a seemingly cheap 4-point home favorite vs. Delaware. Is there any value in fading that? Not enough for me to get excited about. I'll probably make a small moneyline wager?on Delaware in part because I just spent the last hour railing against Northeastern and would feel like an idiot if the Blue Hens won tonight and I didn't cash in. That said, and this is the case with a lot of college basketball games this time of year, the value is scarce and you have to dig for as much info as you can to find ? particularly the type of info that isn?t accounted for in the betting markets. In the case of Northeastern-Delaware, the line seems fair, but I'll be pulling for some regression and the road side to come out on top. Follow me on Twitter @LangeSportsmemo Tags: College Basketball Northeastern Huskies Delaware Blue Hens Andrew Lange | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Handicapping: Can Notre Dame get up for DePaul? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depaul at Notre Dame -11.5 Bus trips, fatigue, hangovers, letdowns...they are all tricky aspects of a lot of handicaps this time of year. For every one that plays out as expected ? Team A off a big win over rival but falls flat next time out as road chalk ? there is another that doesn't ? Team B off three road games in five nights, the last of which in two overtimes, rolls to an easy win and cover. For tonight, a lot of folks are going to question whether or not Notre Dame can bounce back from Saturday's five overtime circus win over Louisville. DePaul isn't a very good team (1-9 vs. Big East) but the Blue Demons have at times been competitive (three Big East losses by 1/OT). The Irish meanwhile don't have a big track record of winning by margin against conference foes. Way back on January 5, off two weeks of rest, Notre Dame beat Seton Hall at home by 21. Their other six Big East wins came by 3, 8, 5, 8 (OT) and 3 (OT). The betting markets have already made the initial move (Notre Dame -12.5 down to -11.5). If the Irish manage to show up, they could certainly win by margin. If they don't, then covering double-digits will be a difficult task. "It's not as hard as you think considering it's DePaul," Cooley said of preparing for league game No. 12 of 18. "We know we've got to take that as a big game and just realize no game in the Big East is any more important than another one." "They had guys talking a little trash, so that will be some motivation for us," Grant said. "It's going to be pretty easy to get up for this one." ?Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish DePaul Blue Demons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Gambling: San Antonio's Big Three expected to play vs. Cleveland | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| San Antonio -7 at Cleveland O/U 207 Despite this being their last game before the All-Star break ? a lot of teams choose to rest injured players ? reports indicate that the San Antonio Spurs will be at full strength tonight with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker all upgraded to probable. The trio did not play in Monday's 103-89 win at Chicago. Oddsmakers are often left playing the guessing game when it comes to who the Spurs will play. They opened -2.5 for tonight's game against the Cavs with the line now up to -7.? Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA Handicapping: Rockets roll over Golden State again, Lakers limp past Suns | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Both the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers won late Tuesday night, keeping Showtime 3.5 games out of the final spot in the playoffs. Houston (+4) beat Golden State 116-107 LA Lakers (-9.5) beat Phoenix 91-85 Houston was impressive in what could have been a trouble spot as a road underdog. The Lakers didn?t have much sizzle in overcoming a fourth quarter deficit to beat the worst team in the West. I?ll run the game numbers in a moment. First, let?s update the standings in the lower half of the West. I?ll also include the home/road splits so far, because that might matter in a race this tight. Updated Bracket Bwester Standings (top 8 spots reach playoffs) 6?Golden State 30-22 (23 home, 29 road) 7?Utah 29-24 (26 home, 27 road) 8?Houston 29-25 (26 home, 28 road) 9?Portland 25-27 (25 home, 27 road) 10?Lakers 25-28 (26 home, 27 road) Golden State has been plummeting like a boulder in a Road Runner cartoon the past several games, with tonight?s loss to Houston being their fifth straight. That by itself would suggest they were in danger of falling down to the #8 seed themselves?and possibly giving the Blazers and Lakers a new easier target to hit in a few weeks. But, the fact that the Warriors have SIX EXTRA HOME GAMES coming up will give them a chance to right the ship. Nobody above has a more favorable schedule the rest of the way than Golden State. Even if they have been getting the worst results of that quintet of late. All five teams listed have played more road games than home games at the moment. The Lakers only have one extra home game going forward, which hurts even more if Houston (+2) is their target team. A quick look at the game boxes? Houston 116, Golden State 107 2-Point Percentage: Houston 58%, Golden State 47% 3-Point Shooting: Houston 10/34, Golden State 8/20 Free Throws: Houston 20/25, Golden State 23/31 1?s and 2?s: Houston 86, Golden State 83 Rebounds: Houston 48, Golden State 46 Turnovers: Houston 11, Golden State 13 Houston crushed Golden State last week with that historic night from long range. Here, much of the damage was done inside the arc against a soft Warriors defense. So much for revenge-minded intensity from Golden State! The Rockets have been in terrific form after getting their legs back. Remember we documented that brutal stretch a few weeks ago when they had to play two different 4-in-5 stretches in consecutive weeks. The 1-8 record that gauntlet inflicted on them cratered their won-lost record for a bit. But, at 29-25 now?that means they?re 28-17 when fresh! That?s .622 in win percentage?close to what Denver?s done this year. Houston is basically a #4-5 seed when not exhausted. Can the Lakers catch THAT from behind?? LA Lakers 91, Phoenix 85 2-Point Percentage: Phoenix 44%, Lakers 47% 3-Point Shooting: Phoenix 3/13, Lakers 7/21 Free Throws: Phoenix 12/17, Lakers 12/18 1?s and 2?s: Phoenix 76, Lakers 70 Rebounds: Phoenix 48, Lakers 48 Turnovers: Phoenix 19, Lakers 19 Kobe was in a fascinating ?Oh yeah Dwight?you?re not getting enough touches? I?m not going to shoot tonight so you can have the ball all you want? mode. ?Unselfish? Kobe had 9 assists, but also turned the ball over 8 times. He was 1 of 8 from the field. The Lakers were outscored inside the arc, didn?t win rebounds, and didn?t win turnovers even though they were almost double digit favorites at home against the worst of the West. It was an unimpressive 33% performance on treys that ultimately won the game, because Phoenix had fewer makes on 23%. Even though Dwight Howard had 19 points and 18 rebounds in 41 minutes?you don?t see a dramatic ?Dwight impact? in the numbers above. The Lakers are still sweating close games vs. bad teams for the most part, performing at a level well below what we?re seeing from Houston. For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here. Tags: NBA Los Angeles Lakers Houston Rockets Stat Intelligence | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Handicapping: Miami's Jim Larranaga uses stats, covers numbers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interesting article on Miami head coach Jim Larranaga and is fondness of Ken Pomeroy's statistics. Note that dating back to his last year at George Mason, Larranaga's teams are an amazing 53-26 against the spread. "Honestly, I never think about it," Larranaga answered. "The only rankings that are important to me are the rankings of the KenPom.com stats in all of the categories that determine success or failure." "The first thing I needed them to know is where they needed to improve, and those numbers showed them because they are totally objective numbers," Larranaga said. "You can't argue with them. They show you what you need to work on. And, as a coach, if you don't know what you need to work on, then you're just practicing ... stuff. Yes, I want to practice what we're good at. But what I really want to practice is what we have to improve on to be really good, and I want my players to understand why we're doing it." ?Tags: College Basketball Miami Hurricanes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sports Betting Podcast 2-13-2013 with Handicappers Brent Crow, Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: College Basketball NBA Brent Crow Teddy Covers Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Basketball Gambling: Duke a double-digit favorite over North Carolina | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| North Carolina at Duke -10.5 O/U 152 Duke and North Carolina hook up for the first time this season in Durham. It's been a balanced series of late with the Blue Devils holding a slight edge both SU (6-5) and ATS (6-5). Home court hasn't meant much with the road side winning six of 10 outright (one game was on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament). Seven of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total.
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NBA Betting Alert: Houston's Harden upgraded to probable vs. Golden State | |
| Houston at Golden State -4.5 O/U 219 Looks like Houston's James Harden (knee) was upgraded to probable for tonight's contest at Golden State. Harden didn't practice Monday but was able to participate in this morning's shootaround. Following the announcement, the Warriors dropped from -5 to -4.5 home chalk. The Rockets won the?most recent?meeting 140-99. Tags: NBA Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors | |
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